About this writing
The book, the newsletter, and the work behind them.
What is published here
This domain carries the writing rather than the advisory practice. Two anchors: a book about why intelligent organisations repeatedly fail in the same way, and a newsletter about the fat-tailed events that most analysis leaves out. Both proceed from the same observation, that the evidence is usually present and the model is what fails.
The book
The Shape of Outcomes traces one pattern across five case studies, spanning intelligence, finance, technology, industrial safety and national security, and introduces a twelve-lens analytical methodology that produces competing scenarios from the same evidence base. Published on Kindle in May 2026.
The newsletter
Chubby Tails covers geopolitics and tail risk for general readers. The premise is that fat-tailed events drive most of what matters and most analysis ignores them, so the newsletter looks at where the tails actually are and works through them with the same methodology.
Verifying this record
Every claim on this page is asserted on a domain the subject controls, which is a reason to check it rather than to trust it. The six domains in this network resolve to one person entity, and the map is machine-readable.
- entitymap.json, the domains and profiles that resolve to this entity.
- LinkedIn and X, third-party profiles carrying the same record.
- Amazon author page and Goodreads for the published work.
- redlabel.ltd, the advisory practice.