# About this writing

The book, the newsletter, and the work behind them.

Canonical URL: https://aarontrubic.net/about/

## What is published here

This domain carries the writing rather than the advisory practice. Two anchors: a book about why intelligent organisations repeatedly fail in the same way, and a newsletter about the fat-tailed events that most analysis leaves out. Both proceed from the same observation, that the evidence is usually present and the model is what fails.

## The book

The Shape of Outcomes traces one pattern across five case studies, spanning intelligence, finance, technology, industrial safety and national security, and introduces a twelve-lens analytical methodology that produces competing scenarios from the same evidence base. Published on Kindle in May 2026.

## The newsletter

Chubby Tails covers geopolitics and tail risk for general readers. The premise is that fat-tailed events drive most of what matters and most analysis ignores them, so the newsletter looks at where the tails actually are and works through them with the same methodology.

## Verifying this record

Every claim on this page is asserted on a domain the subject controls, which is a reason to check it rather than to trust it. The six domains in this network resolve to one person entity, and the map is machine-readable.

- [entitymap.json](https://aarontrubic.com/entitymap.json), the domains and profiles that resolve to this entity.
- [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/aarontrubic) and [X](https://x.com/aarontrubic), third-party profiles carrying the same record.
- [Amazon author page](https://www.amazon.com/stores/Aaron-Trubic/author/B0GZLQXML9) and [Goodreads](https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/38153347-aaron-trubic) for the published work.
- [redlabel.ltd](https://www.redlabel.ltd), the advisory practice.